JJ's three-peat, economic woes among 2008 highlights, lowlights

Autoracing Betting Lines

11/26/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - At the season-ending Sprint Cup Series awards banquet next week in New York City, Jimmie Johnson will be honored for his record-tying third consecutive championship. Johnson, who finished the season 69 points ahead of Carl Edwards, joined Cale Yarborough (1976-78) as the only drivers in NASCAR's 60-year history to win three Cup titles in a row.

Johnson's run to greatness dominated the circuit's 2008 headlines.

Johnson ended the year with seven victories and 22 top-10 finishes, but his season started off sluggishly, as he held the ninth position in points after finishing 39th at Lowe's Motor Speedway in May. His turnaround began in July, when he survived the "tire fiasco" to win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. He recorded victories in the final two races of the regular season - California and Richmond - to start the "Chase for the Sprint Cup" as the third seed.

Johnson won at Kansas, the third race in the Chase, and grabbed the points lead for the first time of the season. After Edwards wrecked at Talladega and suffered mechanical problems at Charlotte, resulting in poor finishes at both tracks, Johnson was well on his way to the title.

"Talladega was a big part of it," Johnson said. "At the end, when things kind of turned out like they have, I look back at a couple of parts. I look at Talladega. I look at Phoenix as a place where we went in, came off a bad race, and we needed to be aggressive. We had to get the job done. We had to send the message back to (Edwards') guys that this thing is far from over."

Edwards scored a series-leading nine victories, including wins in three of the last four races, but came up short of spoiling Johnson's historic feat.

BUSCHED

At the start of the Chase in September, Kyle Busch was considered a strong favorite to win the championship, as he held the top seed after scoring eight wins for the season.

Busch won the spring race at Atlanta, and gave Toyota its first victory in Sprint Cup competition.

In July, there was a lot of talk of Busch tying or surpassing the modern- era record for most wins in a season. Richard Petty (1975) and Jeff Gordon (1998) share the record with 13 wins. Busch held a 207-point lead before his total was adjusted to 5,080 for the Chase.

Busch, however, never became a title contender in this year's Chase as he finished 34th at New Hampshire and then 43rd at Dover. He ended the year 10th in points.

Roush Fenway Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports once again dominated NASCAR's premier series as Edwards (Roush Fenway), Busch (Gibbs) and Johnson (Hendrick) combined for 24 wins in 36 races this season.

TROUBLE AT THE TRACK

While Johnson ended the season with a monumental achievement, NASCAR was faced with the troubling economic times as teams had to lay off hundreds of employees and scramble for sponsorship dollars in 2009.

Dale Earnhardt Inc. and Chip Ganassi Racing combined for seven Sprint Cup teams at the start of this season, but after the recent merger between the two organizations, Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing has been reduced to four teams, with only two of them securing full sponsorship heading into next season. Ganassi's No.40 team ceased operation midway through the season due to lack of sponsorship.

Petty Enterprises sold its controlling interest to private investor Boston Ventures, and it is struggling to find full sponsorship for the No.43 car after General Mills left at the end of the season.

With full sponsorships averaging $20 million per year, roughly 30 teams have sufficient backing for 2009, while another 15 teams have secured at least partial sponsorship or no significant financial help.

"This isn't the first economic [crisis] we've had," NASCAR chairman Brian France said. "We've been in business 60 years. We've seen the energy crisis in 1972...9/11 wasn't that long ago. This is a very big economic downturn, but we're not going to change our business model because we're in tough economic times."

"We have been in the middle of talking to team owners about them realigning with one group or another should they think that a merger would be important. We play a role in that. We obviously understand the teams that are underfunded and face the biggest risk and are working with them to find a partner, find a sponsor."

In an effort to cut costs for teams, NASCAR recently banned testing at its sanctioned tracks for its three national touring and two regional racing series next year.

In addition, given the impact of the current economic downfall upon the big three automakers in Detroit, how much the manufacturers will be involved with NASCAR next season remains uncertain. The automakers are seeking a $25 billion bailout package from the federal government.

BIG NEWS FOR STEWART, NEWMAN

The 2008 season was a memorable one for Tony Stewart, as the two-time Cup champion announced in July he'll merge with Haas CNC Racing next season to serve as both driver and owner of the newly-formed Stewart-Haas Racing. Stewart ended his 10th year at JGR by finally capturing his first Cup victory at Talladega.

Ryan Newman won the Daytona 500, giving Penske Racing its first restrictor- plate victory. Newman and Penske, however, announced they would part ways at the end of the season, with Newman later being named the second driver at Stewart's new team.

Stewart and Newman will both drive Chevrolets next year.

BAD BLOOD

Busch and Edwards sparked a rivalry in August at Bristol Motor Speedway. Edwards nudged Busch aside and grabbed the lead with 31 laps to go as he won the Sharpie 500 for the second year in a row. A frustrated Busch retaliated at the conclusion of the race by intentionally bumping Edwards. But Edwards responded by driving into the right side of Busch's car, spinning him around.

Busch enjoyed his best season so far in his first year with JGR. However, it's not without his own share of controversy, particularly stemming from the incident in May at Richmond International Raceway when he spun out Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in the final stages of the race.

Meanwhile, Edwards and Kevin Harvick engaged in a verbal and physical altercation last month in the Nationwide garage at Lowe's Motor Speedway, stemming from an accident Edwards triggered the week before at Talladega.

BIG-NAME STRUGGLES

Earnhardt, Jr., in his first season with Hendrick, snapped a 76-race winless streak in June at Michigan, but it turned out to be his only points-paying victory of the year. Earnhardt, Jr. began the year by winning both the Budweiser Shootout and the Gatorade Duel at Daytona.

Hendrick announced Mark Martin will join the organization in 2009, replacing Casey Mears in the No.5 car. Mears will take over the Richard Childress Racing No.07 Chevrolet, as Clint Bowyer moves to a fourth entry for RCR, the No.33.

Perhaps the season's biggest surprise was a winless Jeff Gordon, who failed to record a victory for the first time since his rookie season in 1993. Last year, Gordon scored six victories and finished second to teammate Johnson in the championship standings.

Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick were also winless this year.

YOUNG GUNS

David Ragan was arguably the most improved driver in Sprint Cup, as the second-year driver finished 13th in points with 14 top-10's. Regan Smith won rookie-of-the-year honors, but doesn't know his ride status for next year. Smith drove the No.01 Chevrolet for DEI. However, the merger of DEI and Ganassi into a four-team organization and a lack of sponsorship for the No.01 car has made Smith a free agent.

Open-wheel stars Dario Franchitti, Patrick Carpentier and Jacques Villeneuve made the switch to NASCAR, but their careers in stock-car racing appear to have been short-lived. Franchitti was relieved from his driving duties when Ganassi closed shop on his No.40 team. He returned to IndyCars later in the year. Carpentier was released from Gillett Evernham Motorsports, and Villeneuve lost his ride at Bill Davis Racing after he failed to qualify for the Daytona 500.

Sam Hornish, Jr., another open-wheel veteran-turned-NASCAR rookie, started in 34 of 36 races for Penske this season, but failed to qualifying for Homestead. He's expected back with the team next year.

IN OTHER NEWS...

Away from the track, NASCAR had its share of news in 2008.

The sanctioning body unveiled its upgraded substance-abuse policy in September, to include random testing beginning in 2009. All drivers, crew members and even race officials will be tested prior to the start of this coming season, and will be subject to random tests throughout the year.

The Car of Tomorrow ran the full Cup schedule this year, but driver safety concerns, such as unsafe carbon monoxide levels inside the cars, continued to be addressed. Soaring temperatures at Michigan and Sonoma, California in June prompted NASCAR to monitor heat and carbon monoxide inside the COTs.

Former Nationwide Series official Mauricia Grant filed a lawsuit against NASCAR for $225 million, claiming incidents of sexual harassment and racial discrimination.

Before you know it Speedweeks 2009 will be here in February, and likely the biggest topics of discussion will be Johnson's quest for a record fourth- straight series championship, and the economic recession and its effect on the sport.

Nonetheless, the 2009 season should be filled with plenty of memories, surprises and disappointments, as usual.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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